Pro Commentary Lite … 4th June 2008 … USDJPY

June 4, 2008

An excerpt from Pro Commentary

Price: 105.18

Resistance: 105.35 105.54 105.86 106.25 Support: 104.80 104.50 104.20 103.86

Hourly chart with indicators

Bias: While 104.80 remains intact we should see extension higher above 105.50-86 and towards 106.82

Daily Bullish: We did see one more dip yesterday but the bounce from 103.86 was quite decisive. It is encouraging for the expectation of a move to the 106.82 target although I have to say the manner of the rally is not 100% clear. Right now while 104.80 continues to support I still see room for additional gains through 105.54 and then 105.86 en route 106.25 and 106.55-82. There is also an additional target at 107.00. With a daily bearish divergence already in place this 106.60-00 area should provide a cap. MT Bullish: 29^th May: The 106.82 target is back on track and while the 105.68-00 area should initially cause a pullback the next rally should hit the 106.82 retracement target which should cap or force stronger gains to 107.36-78. Daily Bearish: Yesterday’s losses stalled at the top of the 103.62-84 support and provided a lift. If there is any weakness in the bullish view then it is that we could see a short period of consolidation. There is support at 104.80 and any breach of this would trigger follow-through back below 104.50 and probably 104.20. This needs to hold else look for a second dip, this time below 103.86 for 103.46-54. MT Bearish: 4^th June: The short term is a little uncertain and I’d still prefer to see a test of 106.82 first but any earlier break below 103.46-86 would open up a stronger reversal back to the 102.56-72 lows again.

ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS

Elliott Wave Comments

4^th June

It looks as if yesterday’s 103.86 low provided the low in Wave (b) being a 61.8% retracement. A wave equality target in Wave (c) rests at 107.00 and just 18 points above the daily 50% retracement in Wave (iv) at 106.82.

I would prefer to see this directly but if the 104.80 support fails it opens up two possible alternatives.

First could be a sideways (triangle?) Wave (b.) The second could in fact a deeper recycling of Wave (b) to the 76.4% retracement at 103.46.

Thus we need to exercise some care at this stage but until 103.40 and 102.56-72 breaks the upside still looks more likely.

Ian Copsey